China proposes export curbs on 23 AI technologies: core tech of models trained with ≥10^26 FLOPs, ≥2T parameters or global top-10 capability would need a licence; open-source work and API/SaaS services are exempt

Why it matters

【Key points】

On Oct 16, China's commerce and science ministries (MOFCOM/MOST, Announcement No. 48) proposed adding 40 technologies to the export prohibition/restriction catalogue — 23 in AI (models, agents, compute clusters, info processing). Comments close Nov 15; pre-export registration applies from today.

Draft annex: models trained on China's "core data" would be export-prohibited. Core tech (weights, checkpoints, source code, architecture, training/inference techniques) of models with ≥10^26 training FLOPs, ≥2T parameters or a global top-10 public ranking would be restricted. Also restricted: agent tech above thresholds (20+ step task decomposition, 60+ concurrent agents, 200+ tools), AI-assisted vulnerability discovery, AI chip design at ≤14nm, and interconnect/fault-tolerance tech for 10,000+ accelerator clusters. AI-driven malware generation would be prohibited.

【Verifiable】

Announcement: https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/blgg/gg/2026/art/2026/art_05e2643a8ca04eb9adf9dd0542991fe4.html

MOFCOM Q&A: https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/syxwfb/art/2026/art_a4acff07e134447fbe7bbeb486df3ea6.html

CCTV: https://news.cctv.cn/2026/10/16/ARTIRkhaNPzu5t91GYgoLqlO261016.shtml

【Our read】

1. China's first compute/parameter/ranking lines for frontier-model export control; 10^26 FLOPs matches the order of the former US reporting threshold. Per the Q&A, open-sourced or published tech is exempt, and serving a restricted model abroad via API, apps, SaaS or light on-device deployment is not an export; transferring or licensing weights/code/training know-how and overseas on-prem deployment are covered (own overseas cloud gets automatic licensing).

2. Licensing unreleased flagship weights to foreign partners may now need approval, while open-sourcing stays outside the regime. "Global top-10" relies on outside leaderboards and is vague.

3. Still a draft with no final date, but registration is live now.