e-Conomy SEA 2026: 243 million Southeast Asians (58% of working population) use generative AI; Google, Temasek and Bain project $368B digital GMV and a 60x rise in AI token usage by 2030

Why it matters

【Key points】

Google, Temasek and Bain released the 11th e-Conomy SEA report, "Building the Intelligent Economy".

1. 243M Southeast Asians (58% of the working population) actively use generative AI, adopting it 4x faster than mobile internet.

2. Digital GMV to grow 17% to $368B in 2026 and pass $1T by 2035; e-commerce $226B (+18%).

3. Tokens are the new AI-economy benchmark; regional AI usage projected to rise 60x in five years.

4. 75% would let AI agents compare prices and buy for them; 62% trust AI more than a year ago. Wanted safeguards: privacy 44%, clarity on limits 36%, reversible transactions 30%.

5. Data-centre capacity must roughly triple in five years; ASEAN's DEFA digital trade pact is due in November 2026.

【Verifiable】

Google blog: https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/around-the-globe/google-asia/e-conomy-sea-report-2026/

【Our read】

1. Background: the annual report long tracked GMV; leading with AI users and tokens shows the yardstick shifting from trial to actual compute consumed, the same lens Vercel's AI Gateway and OpenRouter use.

2. Comparison: at 58% penetration SEA is no longer a late adopter. US clouds and Alibaba and Huawei Cloud are adding capacity in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia; a 60x demand rise would make it a direct arena for US-China model and cloud competition and a main market for Chinese labs abroad.

3. Impact: only 30% demand reversible transactions, so consumers may underestimate agent errors; without refund and liability rules, trust could fall after early incidents. DEFA will shape cross-border agentic shopping.

4. Caveats: Google co-authors it; data are surveys and modelling; GMV is not AI revenue; 60x is a projection.